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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 4th, 2022–Jan 5th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

North Columbia.

The best riding and lowest hazard intersect in wind sheltered terrain below treeline. If you're stepping out into wind affected terrain, you'll likely find storm slabs that are sensitive to human triggering. Keep your terrain choices in check as the storm snow settles.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Another storm is set to impact the region Thursday.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast, freezing level at valley bottom, trace of snow possible, light variable wind.

WEDNESDAY: Scattered cloud cover, daytime high temperature between -10 and -15 C at treeline, light wind generally out of the northwest, trace of snow possible.

THURSDAY: Overcast, daytime high temperature between -10 and -15 C at treeline, strong southwest wind, snow beginning in the morning, 5 to 15 cm expected during the day with another 5 to 15 cm expected Thursday night.

FRIDAY: Overcast, flurries, daytime high temperature between -10 and -15 C at treeline, strong southwest wind, 5 to 10 cm of snow possible.

Avalanche Summary

Lots of natural storm slab and loose dry avalanche activity to size two was observed Monday on all aspects.

Over the last week, avalanche activity on the early December crust/facet interface has been confined to a couple of isolated avalanches in complex northeast facing alpine terrain which were triggered with explosive control work. Each had wide propagation and ran several hundred metres. 

Cornice falls have triggered numerous slabs recently. Navigate around cornices carefully, both on ridgelines and on the slopes below.

Snowpack Summary

The weekend storm produced 20 to 50 cm of storm snow accompanied by wind that was quite variable, but mainly out of the south. Wind loading is suspected to be extensive in the alpine, but the bulk of the observations we're getting are from lower elevations.

We're actively monitoring the early December crust. In some places it's scoured and on the surface, while in wind loaded terrain features it can be found as deep as 150 cm below the surface. It consists of faceted grains above a bulletproof crust formed by the Atmospheric Rivers of early December. Avalanches failing on this interface have the potential to be very large. There has been isolated avalanche activity on this crust in the last week that seems to be confined to complex alpine terrain.  

The biggest concern is how it will behave next weekend as temperatures rise quite dramatically.

Terrain and Travel

  • If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.
  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Be aware of highly variable recent wind loading patterns.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.