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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2023–Jan 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kitimat, Nass, Rupert, Seven Sisters, Shames, Howson.

Start on small features and gain confidence before moving into bigger terrain. Where the snow is dry, a slab could easily avalanche on a layer of weak, feathery, surface hoar crystals. Where the snow is wet or moist, a small amount of moving, loose snow/slush could gain mass and knock a rider over or carry them down a slope.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday in the Shames backcountry, pinwheeling of moist snow was reported in steeper terrain, along with signs of recent, wet loose avalanches.

Also, a small, rider triggered avalanche was reported northwest of Terrace. It occurred around treeline, and failed down 30 cm, possibly on a layer of surface hoar that was buried on Dec 9.

Snowpack Summary

Surface snow is expected to be moist or refrozen below 1000m. In terrain sheltered from the wind, 20-40 cm of settling snow overlies a layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals buried in early January. Below 1000 m and on slopes facing the sun, this new snow overlies a thin crust.

Weak layers that were reactive over the Christmas and New Year's period have shown signs of bonding and gaining strength. These include a surface hoar layer buried on Dec 28 found 50 to 100 cm deep and a facet layer buried on Dec 23 found 70 to 120 cm deep.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy. 0-5 cm of snow expected. Light southwest winds. Freezing level around 750 m.

Monday

Cloudy. No new snow expected. Light southwest wind, possibly moderate in the alpine in the afternoon. Freezing level around 750 m.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy. 5-15 cm of snow expected. The bigger numbers are forecasted to be further south, and closer to the coast. Strong south wind. Alpine temperatures around -5°C. Snow/Rain line between 500 and 1000 m.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy. 5-10 cm of snow expected. Possibly 30-40 cm in areas near Kitimat. Moderate southwest wind. Alpine temperatures around -5°C. Snow/Rain line between 500 and 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.