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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2023–Jan 17th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos, North Rockies, McBride, Quesnel, Sugarbowl, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass, Renshaw, Robson, Tumbler.

Avoid rocky or wind loaded features where the snowpack varies from thick to thin. This is where both wind slabs and buried weak layers can most likely be triggered.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Two large avalanches were reported over the weekend. One, on Saturday, was potentially remotely triggered by snowmobilers at Hassler, producing a size 2 avalanche that propagated widely across a sparsely treed slope. Another, on Sunday, was a size 2 avalanche triggered by a skier in the Cariboos. This avalanche failed on a 55 cm deep surface hoar layer on a north-facing slope at 2000 m.

Several natural storm slab and wet loose avalanches occurred during the stormy weather on Friday.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Strong southwest wind and light flurries could cause some blowing snow in alpine terrain. 10 to 15 cm of recent snow is quickly settling. Fluctuating freezing level have resulted in tough travel conditions below 1800 m. Freezing levels did not get as high in the north.

A recently buried surface hoar layer is found 10 to 40 cm deep in sheltered terrain features at treeline and above. At this same depth, a crust exists on steep south facing slopes.

The two layers of greatest concern are a layer of facets, crust and surface hoar that was buried around Christmas and found around 40 to 70 cm deep. The other is a layer of large, weak facets buried in November and found near the bottom of the snowpack. This layer is likely most problematic in alpine terrain, where shallower avalanches could scrub down to these basal facets. These layers may persist for a prolonged period of time, as described in our Forecasters' blog.

In general, the snowpack is weak and shallow.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Mostly cloudy, scattered flurries with mostly trace amounts but some isolated areas with up to 5 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind with some gusts to 50 km/h in the North Rockies, treeline temperatures around -5 °C with freezing level around 1000 m.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with sunny breaks in the afternoon, 40 to 50 km/h southwest wind, freezing level around 1000 m with treeline temperatures reaching -3 °C.

Wednesday

Cloudy with light flurries bringing 1 to 5 cm of snow, 40 to 50 km/h southwest wind, freezing level around 1000 m with treeline temperatures reaching -3 °C.

Thursday

Overnight flurries bring 1 to 5 cm of snow, mix of sun and cloudy throughout the day, 30 to 50 km/h southwest wind, freezing level drops to valley bottom with treeline temperatures around -6 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.