Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 5th, 2026–Mar 6th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

A persistent weak layer remains the primary concern across the region and continues to produce large, destructive avalanches. Don't get caught off guard!

Stick to low-angle terrain and avoid exposure to steep slopes overhead.

Confidence

Moderate

We are confident that there are persistent slabs in the snowpack, but uncertain about how likely they are to trigger.

Avalanche Summary

A size 3.5 Persistent Slab avalanche on Mt Morden Long in Jasper National Park was observed on March 5, 2026 (see photo). Although there is a decrease in natural activity on the persistent weak layer there remains a very real potential for large destructive avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

5-10cm of new snow fell on March 3, however warm temperatures have formed a melt freeze crust on solar aspects to 2200m. Recent winds have also redistributed the snow in exposed areas Alpine and Treeline forming windslabs.

Of most concern right now is a 40-80cm slab sitting atop the Jan 24th weak layer of facets & surface hoar forming a persistent slab.

Although generally the midpack is well consolidated, there is a large amount of variability with thin areas remaining weak.

Weather Summary

Friday

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries (trace amounts). Ridge wind light to 25 km/h. Alpine High -3 °C. Freezing level 1800 metres.

Saturday

Flurries (8 cm). Mostly light ridge wind occasionally gusting to 45 km/h. Alpine temperature Low -3 °C and High 1 °C. Freezing level 2300 metres.

Sunday

Flurries (6 cm). Mostly light ridge wind occasionally gusting to 55 km/h. Alpine temperature Low -11 °C and High 0 °C. Freezing level: 2200 metres.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
Keep in mind that human triggering may persist as natural avalanches taper off.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.