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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2026–Mar 4th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Dogtooth, East Purcell.

A reactive persistent weak layer remains the primary concern for the region - especially around treeline.

Stick to low-angle slopes and avoid overhead hazards.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident that there are persistent slabs in the snowpack, but uncertain about how likely they are to trigger.

Avalanche Summary

Monday
A size 2 natural cornice failure occurred.

Sunday
Numerous natural, explosive, and rider-triggered avalanches were observed, including a size 2.5 avalanche triggered from 3 m away.

Saturday
A widespread avalanche cycle to size 3 occurred with avalanches failing within the recent storm snow and on persistent weak layers. Many avalanches were in steep open features; however, this MIN from Silent Pass reports a size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche below treeline.

Snowpack Summary

Around 5 to 15 mm of precipitation is in the forecast for Wednesday, and may fall as rain below 2100 m.

Widespread wind effect at upper elevations left a variety of pressed surfaces, slabs, and sastrugi in open terrain. Solar-facing slopes and lower elevations likely have a surface crust.

A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or crust is buried 40 to 60 cm, with deeper areas like the Dogtooth Range reporting this layer up to 100 cm deep. Recent persistent slab avalanches have failed on this layer, many triggered in sheltered openings at treeline and below.

The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled. In shallow snowpack areas, large facets or depth hoar are present at the bottom of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy. 2 to 5 cm of snow, highest amounts for the Dogtooth range. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1800 m.

Wednesday
Mostly cloudy. 2 to 10 cm of snow at treeline, possible rain below. Highest amounts for the Dogtooth range. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 2100 m.

Thursday
Mix of sun and clouds. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 1700 m.

Friday
Mix of sun and clouds. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1900 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, or recent avalanches.
  • Be aware of the potential for remote triggering and large avalanches due to buried surface hoar.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.