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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 21st, 2019–Nov 22nd, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Our snowpack is young, relatively thin, and highly variable. Watch for thin wind slabs near ridge crest and be aware of the potential for larger avalanches in alpine features due to a deeply buried crust.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Friday: Few clouds, freezing level around 1000 m, light southwest wind in most locations, no significant precipitation.

Saturday: Overcast, freezing level around 1200 m, moderate to strong southwest wind, 5 to 15 cm of snow possible above 1000 m.

Saturday Night: An additional 5 to 15 cm of snow possible.

Sunday: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 1000 m, moderate west wind, trace of snow possible.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche activity has been reported. A natural avalanche cycle is possible late Saturday as storm snow begins to stack up on a weak and variable snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Winter is slowly descending to the valleys with about 90 to 120 cm of snow present around 2000 m.

There are likely a variety of crusts in our young snowpack, but a problematic rain crust down about 50 cm is beginning to stand out. This "October Crust" is showing sudden & repeatable results when subjected to snowpack tests. Avalanches failing on this interface have the potential to be large and could easily suprise users who are getting out onto snow for the first time this season. There's a great summary of conditions at Allan Creek here.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.