It's raining right now at Rogers Pass and freezing levels are suppose to rise by tomorrow. With all the new snow, wind and the buried surface hoar layers, it may be best to wait until things cool down before heading out in the backcountry.
Weather Forecast
Pineapple Express weather system that keeps on giving. Today its in the form of rain and warm temperatures. Actual rain amounts have exceeded forecast amounts. The forecast is for the mild air to be even milder by tomorrow with freezing levels reaching between 2300m-3000m. Precipitation is supposed to taper off by this afternoon.
Snowpack Summary
45cm of recent storm snow with up to 11mm of rain overtop below 2000m so far. The Jan 15 surface hoar is buried 60-90cm and recent snowpack stability tests indicate it is likely to be triggered and propagate. The Dec 17 surface hoar/ crust complex is down 130-180cm.
Avalanche Summary
Yesterday, natural avalanches and artillery control produced numerous size 2.0 to 3.0 avalanches within the highway corridor. Backcountry observations are limited at this time but expect a natural cycle to have occurred.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.