Natural avalanche activity should taper today leaving slopes primed for human triggered avalanches. Avalanches have the potential to run full path.
Weather Forecast
Mainly cloudy today with scattered flurries and no significant precip. The alpine high should be -11C with 20 km/h southwesterly winds, gusting to 55km/h. Freezing level is forecast to reach 800m today. Similar weather is expected Sunday. Early next week a warming trend is forecast for the area with freezing levels possibly reaching above 2000m.
Snowpack Summary
55cm of storm snow and strong S winds have formed reactive storm slabs at treeline & above. On solar aspects this slab buries a suncrust that was showing sudden planer results in snowpack tests before the storm. The storm snow will need time to settle & bond to old snow surfaces. Underneath, the mid & lwr snowpack are unusually weak and facetted
Avalanche Summary
Natural avalanche activity will taper off slightly today after a massive 2 day cycle triggered by the heavy snow and strong winds. In the last 2 day avalanches to sz 4 were observed, most running the full extent of their paths to valley bottom. In Connaught crk sz 3's were reported from Mt Cheops & Frequent Flyer path ran across the normal uptrack!
Confidence
Due to the number of field observations
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.