Avalanche danger will increase as the forecast storm hits us. If freezing levels rise, danger will rise rapidly. Stick to low angled slopes and avoid overhead exposure.
Weather Forecast
A warm front will bring warm temperatures and moderate to heavy precipitation today and tomorrow. Up to 20cm of new snow is expected by Thursday morning and another 15-25 cm on Thursday. It is possible that freezing levels will spike today, potentially resulting in rain up to treeline. Moderate SW winds will increase loading.
Snowpack Summary
Two layers of concern, the Nov 21 surface hoar/sun crust layer down ~75 and Nov 9 rain crust down ~100cm, are becoming reactive as the load on top of them increases. Snowpack tests in two locations, a south aspect and a north aspect, showed that these layers may be triggered by skiers and if triggered are likely to propagate into large avalanches.
Avalanche Summary
Numerous natural avalanches were observed yesterday. Up the Connaught drainage avalanches to size 2.5 were observed from the paths off of Mt Cheops. Cheops North bowl ran into the creek. Along the highway avalanches were observed from all aspects running well into the avalanche run-out zones. Most were size 2, but there were two size 3's.
Confidence
Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.