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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 11th, 2015–Dec 12th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Don't be surprised by a touchy surface hoar layer that becomes more reactive at lower elevations. This layer has been triggered by skiers and riders. Be suspicious of open areas below ~1700m and increasingly cautious as you get lower in your run.

Weather Forecast

We are in between weather systems today, with the next storm arriving late Saturday. Today expect a few flurries, with possibly a few sunny breaks this afternoon. Temps will be mild at and below treeline and around -10 in the alpine with light winds. Late Saturday snow and strong winds will bring 5-10cm of snow by Sunday morning.

Snowpack Summary

At treeline, 1m of new snow over the past week is settling and overlies a variety of surfaces. At treeline and below it sits on a surface hoar layer. The surface hoar layer is biggest and very reactive below ~1600m. On solar aspects it sits on a sun crust and may bond poorly. Surface hoar layers down ~1.5m are still reactive but harder to trigger.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday numerous size 2 natural avalanches were observed in steep avalanche paths, likely triggered by windloading. On Wednesday, there were reports of the Dec 2 surface hoar being remotely and skier triggered producing up to size 2 avalanches at ~1500m. At treeline and above, pockets of soft windslab have been easily triggered.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.