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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 19th, 2016–Mar 20th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

There are several complex avalanche problems  that very with aspect and elevation. Be aware of changing hazards as you move through terrain.

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud today with freezing levels reaching 1800m.  Alpine temperature high of -1, although expect warmer temps on solar aspects if the sun shines through.  Winds remain light form the south.  Freezing levels continue to rise this weekend, peaking at 2700m on Sunday with light rain.

Snowpack Summary

Expect a surface crust on solar aspects. 30 to 50 cm of settling storm snow remains unconsolidated in shaded areas and sits over a crust on solar aspects.  Weak layers from February are down 70-120cm and are of most concern on solar aspects. Touchy winds slabs and deep loading exist on lee features in the alpine. Cornices are large and touchy.

Avalanche Summary

We received reports of several natural avalanches in the Rogers Pass backcountry.  Avalanches were triggered on solar aspects and ranged from loose point releases to storm slab releases. 

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.