Recent reports and snowpack test results indicate a lot of variability. Look for signs of instability and check the snowpack before committing to your line. Strong sun forecast for tomorrow may increase avalanche danger on solar aspects
Weather Forecast
Unsettled NW'ly flow is pushing across the area. Expect isolated flurries, sunny breaks, and light NW winds today. A ridge of high pressure is building tomorrow bringing mostly sunny skies, and light W-NW winds. High solar inputs are forecast.
Snowpack Summary
The storm slab is most reactive where it overlies a sun crust down ~30cm on steep solar aspects in the alpine. The Nov 6 crust is down 80-120cm with facets around the crust. Test results vary; from sudden planar to sudden collapse; and comp test easy to deep tap test hard.
Avalanche Summary
Recently, windloading is the trigger. Yesterday, 4 loose avalanches size 1.5-2 ran from steep terrain. On Thurs there were 2 size 1.5 skier accidental avalanches triggered on the Nov 16 crust. No avalanches have stepped down to the Nov 6 crust, yet.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.