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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 1st, 2012–Dec 2nd, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Weather Forecast

A very mild and moist SW'ly flow pattern will continue. Precipitation will continue through the weekend, bringing another 5-10 cm today, 5cm Sunday, and 10-15 on Monday. Freezing levels are presently at 1300m and may rise to 1500m before dropping to 800m overnight. Winds will be transporting snow; moderate to strong from the SW.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of wet, dense snow is forming a storm slab sitting on a suncrust of steep solar slopes and surface hoar elsewhere. The surface hoar layer was largest at treeline, and were mixed with large stellar crystals. The Nov 6 crust is facetting and in recent tests it takes a hard force but gives sudden planar or sudden collapse results.

Avalanche Summary

4 natural size 2 avalanches were obersved adjacent to the highway yesterday. They were on N aspects, starting at eleveations of 22-2800 m, and ran into the avalanche fans. Cheops N4 (aka STS couloir) ran naturally on Thursday into the avalanche fan.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.