Weather Forecast
Today should be mostly overcast, with a chance of flurries and moderate to strong westerly winds. Monday expect cooler temps, possibly to -18 in the alpine, and broken skies. On Tuesday the next strong system moves into the region. Temps and freezing levels will rise, and moderate to heavy precipitation with moderate to strong SW winds are forecast
Snowpack Summary
A breakable surface crust exists on solar aspects. 10cm of snow overlies a rain crust to 1800m and settled snow and windslabs above. Last weeks storm slab and the Feb12 surface hoar layer are gaining strength. The Feb12 is over a meter deep and is of most concern on solar aspects where it overlies a crust or on slopes that have not yet avalanched.
Avalanche Summary
Numerous solar triggered avalanches to size 2 were observed yesterday. These loose avalanches occurred on all solar aspects, with moist debris at lower elevations. A few crossed the uptrack from confined paths up Connaught. None were observed to step down or trigger slabs. Skiers also reported moist snow sluffing and snowballing on steep slopes.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.