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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 18th, 2019–Apr 19th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Conditions will vary rapidly with elevation. Watch for loose wet activity below the rain-snow line and touchy wind slabs above. Travel conservatively during Friday's stormy conditions.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain, accumulation 10 to 20 mm, moderate to strong southwest wind, alpine temperature 1 C, freezing level 2500 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with alpine snow, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, moderate west wind, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 2200 m dropping to 1800 m.

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and clouds with isolated flurries, light north wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 2000 m.

SUNDAY: Mostly clear skies, light south wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 2100 m.

Avalanche Summary

Small (size 1) storm slab avalanches were triggered naturally and by a skier on Wednesday. They were in alpine terrain, 20 to 30 cm deep, and on north to east aspects.

Snowpack Summary

The freezing level rose to around 2500 m on Thursday, moistening the snowpack on all aspects. Above 2500 m, around 10 to 20 cm of snow may accumulate on Thursday night, with rain below. Another 5 to 15 cm of snow may accumulate above around 1800 m to 2200 m on Friday. Where the precipitation falls as snow, it may form touchy slabs on Friday, particularly in exposed areas due to strong southwest wind.

Weak and sugary faceted grains may remain at the bottom of the snowpack in the alpine, producing a low likelihood but high consequence scenario. Steep, rocky areas with a shallow snowpack are the most likely places to trigger this layer.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.