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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 7th, 2016–Feb 8th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

A warm and sunny day with freezing levels pushing above 12,000 feet Monday will point the avalanche danger toward loose wet avalanches. Steeper solar slopes should be the most likely places for natural or skier triggered loose wet avalanches. Solar slopes involve more than just due south aspects as we head further into February.  

Detailed Forecast

A warm and sunny day with lighter  winds should be seen on Monday. As freezing levels push above 12,000 feet, the avalanche danger will focus on loose wet avalanches. Steeper solar slopes should be the most likely places for natural or skier triggered loose wet avalanches. Solar slopes involve more than just due south aspects as we head further into February.  

Be aware of loose wet avalanche potential above terrain traps (like above cliffs or near gullies), where even small wet avalanches can become powerful and have unintended consequences.  

Lingering wind slab on lee slopes near and above treeline should be stubborn to trigger, but still possible in isolated locations on Monday. 

Snowpack Discussion

Cool, benign weather early last week formed a sun crust on many solar slopes and allowed surface hoar development on non-solar slopes.

A cold front and then a warm front crossed the Northwest on Wednesday and Thursday. The Hurricane ranger reported about 8 inches of snowfall for the 2 days ending Friday morning. No snowpack observations were received Friday due to the closed road. 

An additional 7 inches of snow fell with a cooling trend during Friday night's fast, yet powerful front. Lee slopes were likely loaded by strong S-SW winds with this system.

On Saturday, an observation on the NWAC page submitted by a professional guide identified a sensitive buried surface hoar layer on a north aspect near Hurricane Ridge.  Shooting cracks were observed, but no avalanche activity was observed on this layer.  

Also on Saturday, a NPS ranger reported a snowboarder triggered a wind slab avalanche on a NE aspect just outside of the ski area. The snowboarder was not caught, but the soft wind slab avalanche had a 1-2 ft crown. 

Warm temperatures, cloudy skies, and periodic light rain occurred on Sunday. 

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.