Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Jan 29 – 30, 2018Alberta Parks
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Archived · expired 9 years ago

Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A good day to stay away from avalanche terrain. Some natural avalanches are reaching the end of their run-outs, and activity is expected to increase tomorrow with the incoming storm.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–3
    A bunch of snow is expected overnight with very strong westerly winds. Wind slabs will be very touchy to human triggering.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–3
    We may be near the tipping point for avalanche activity to begin on any one of several buried weak layers. Large avalanches are occurring on these layers.

Snowpack Summary

Strong to extreme West winds have created fresh wind slabs in all Alpine and Treeline terrain in lee and cross-loaded terrain. At Treeline and below several buried weak layers exist. These are surface hoar layers buried 30, 50 and 80cm on average. All these weak layers are producing sudden planar shears with the Dec 15th layer down 80cm being perhaps the most concerning. Recent avalanche activity has been observed to step down to this Dec 15th layer creating large avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A burst of wind and snow is expected overnight Monday, bringing 15 to 20cm of new snow by Tuesday morning. Winds will be strong to extreme out of the west, creating perfect conditions for further wind slab development. Tuesday is looking like a cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Strong winds will continue with alpine temperatures near  -10 °C.

Avalanche Summary

A size 2.5 or 3 (extent of debris unconfirmed) occurred sometime today on Tent Ridge, on an East aspect at 2450m. This initiated down about 100cm and then stepped even deeper part way down the avalanche path. In addition a size 2.0 occurred on Little Tent Ridge on a SE aspect at 2350m. This one wasn't quite as deep but it did propagate across the entire feature. A couple of size 2.0 to 2.5 slab avalanches occurred on the Goat Range in the past 24hrs, initiating in the upper Alpine and running to 1/2 or 3/4 path.

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