http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/scond/Cond_E.asp?oID=30469&oPark=100205 Human-triggered avalanches are likely with several buried surface hoar layers. It's time for conservative decision making.
Weather Forecast
Cloudy with sunny periods today. Freezing levels climb to 800m with an alpine high of -8.0. Winds will be light from the SW. Cold arctic air will be replaced by a SW flow on Saturday bringing warmer temperatures, strong winds and trace amounts of snow. Freezing levels reach 1700m on Sunday. Up to 20cm of snow is expected for Tuesday.
Snowpack Summary
70cm of snow fell in the past week and settled into a slab over several weak layers. Jan 4th surface hoar is down 50cm and the Dec 15 surface hoar persistent weak layer is down around 100cm. The additional snow load has made these layers reactive. Snowpack tests show propagation potential with sudden planar results on the Jan 4 and Dec15 layers.
Avalanche Summary
A size 3 natural avalanche occurred yesterday morning on the SE face of 8812 peak. A field team observed evidence of a slightly older widespread natural avalanche cycle while traveling in Connaught Creek drainage. A second field team felt a large whumph while descending through an open glade in the Hermit area.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.