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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 21st, 2019–Dec 22nd, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Snow is gradually accumulating and consolidating above a recently buried layer of surface hoar. Best to make conservative terrain choices at this time.

Confidence

No Rating - Uncertainty is due to unpredictable avalanche behavior. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Saturday Night: Scattered flurries. Alpine temperature -3 C. Light southwest wind . Freezing level 600 m.

Sunday: Mainly cloudy. Alpine temperature -4 C. Light southwest wind. Freezing level 500 m.

Monday: Flurries, accumulation 5-10 cm. Alpine temperature -5 C. Moderate south wind. Freezing level 500 m.

Tuesday: Scattered flurries, Alpine temperature -5 C. Moderate southwest wind. Freezing level 300 m.

Avalanche Summary

There were reports of a few natural size 1 storm slab avalanches in the Shames area on Thursday. There are no reports of avalanche activity on Friday or Saturday. 

Snowpack Summary

50-80 cm of snow has accumulated over a weak layer of surface hoar, old faceted surfaces, and/or a crust on south/southwest aspects in the alpine. Reports from the Shames area suggest the surface hoar layer is prevalent on all aspects at treeline elevations down to 800 m, and more likely on leeward and sheltered alpine areas. Check out this MIN report from sheltered terrain near Shames.

The lower snowpack is generally considered strong, as there has been very little to report in terms of recent avalanche activity or snowpack test results on deeper layers. Snowpack depths at treeline range from 100-200 cm and taper quickly at lower elevations.

Terrain and Travel

  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.