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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2012–Jan 4th, 2012

Alpine
Widespread avalanches certain.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

A significant storm with heavy precipitation amounts and high freezing levels will result in a major avalanche cycle on Wednesday.

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

An intense storm will bring heavy amounts of precipitation-expect around 25 mm Tuesday night and 30-40 mm on Wednesday. Freezing levels will rise to around 1500 m and then start to fall on Wednesday afternoon as a cold front passes over. The passage of the cold front will bring a further 10-20 mm precipitation for Thursday. Ridgetop winds will be extreme (up to 140 km/h) initially from the southwest, then becoming westerly. On Friday, another frontal system hits the coastal region bringing heavy precipitation near the coast and moderate amounts further inland.

Avalanche Summary

A few natural size 1-1.5 windslabs were observed in the last 24 hours near Stewart.A natural size 1.5 was observed below treeline near Terrace.

Snowpack Summary

The snow tap is still firmly on in this region, with almost continuous precipitation melding one layer of storm snow into the next. Sunday's storm added a further 45 cm of new snow to the ever increasing total; snow depths are currently at record levels for this time of year. Strong southwest to westerly winds have set up touchy windslabs on lee slopes. Large sensitive cornices exist. Expect further significant wind and storm slab development with the forecast weather.Previous weak layers in the midpack, including a surface hoar are gaining strength and becoming too deeply buried to be a concern except from very heavy loads (such as a cornice fall). The lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.