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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 18th, 2014–Dec 19th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Avalanche danger is increasing as the new storm moves in from the Southwest.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Very light snow overnight combined with moderate to strong Southeast winds and freezing levels at valley bottoms. Very light snow during the day on Friday with light to moderate Southwest winds. Light snow (5-10 cm) by Saturday morning combined with very strong Southerly winds. Snow and strong Southwest wind continuing during the day Saturday with another 5-10 cm expected to accumulate. Unsettled on Sunday with flurries or light snow, moderate Southwest winds and freezing levels at valley bottoms.

Avalanche Summary

There are no new avalanche reports from the region. The forecast new storm is expected to develop a new storm slab that may increase avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

The new storm is expected to develop a storm slab above the dusting of new snow which overlies weak surface hoar reported to exist up to at least treeline elevation. Below the new snow you'll likely find wind-scoured surfaces and old wind slabs in exposed terrain, and settled storm snow closer to treeline. Near the base of the snowpack, weaknesses such as the mid-November crust-facet layer are still of concern. I'd use extra caution around steep, unsupported high elevation terrain as avalanches at this interface could propagate over wide distances.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.