Regions
Northwest Inland.
Hazard could go higher than forecast if temperatures and solar radiation exceed expectations. Cornices are becoming mature and could fail with warm temperatures and increasing loads.
Confidence
Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain
Weather Forecast
Synopsis: A northwesterly flow will bring cool and unsettled weather for the next few days .Tonight: Cloudy, trace to 5 cm of precipitation, freezing level at valley bottom, winds light from the south east.Friday: Cloudy, no precipitation in the forecast, freezing level at valley bottom, light south east ridge top winds.Saturday: Cloudy with snow, 5 to 10cm of precipitation, freezing level at valley bottom, ridge top winds, light to moderate from the south east.Sunday: Sunny with cloudy periods, No precipitation in the forecast, freezing level around 600 metres, light ridge top winds from the north.
Avalanche Summary
Wednesdays' reports speak of a number of large ( size 3 ) avalanches in the region, most were natural avalanches, with 1 skier remote to the north and a cornice failure triggering a size 3 in the western part of the forecast area.With continued loading and wind, rider triggering is definitely possible at this time.
Snowpack Summary
10 to 20cm of recent precipitation in some parts of the forecast region. That, combined with strong winds continues to build wind slabs in lee terrain and increase the depth of the storm slab that overlies the persistent weak layers. At lower elevations the storm snow has fallen on a melt freeze and/or rain crusts that exists in most parts of the region below 1200 metres. This could become reactive on solar aspects when the sun finally comes out.The March weak layer is a combination of hard wind-scoured slab surfaces in exposed terrain, facets and/or surface hoar in sheltered and north aspects, and sun crust on steep solar aspects and is widespread throughout the forecast region. this layer is now buried well over a metre in some parts of the region.A late January/early February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is still showing up in snowpack tests with moderate to hard shear tests. This layer will be with us for a long time, and a slide triggered on this layer would be very large and destructive. Recent warming temperatures will be good for bonding on this layer, but a sudden increase in load, or a large rainfall event could "wake up" this layer and result in very large avalanches.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.