Conservative route selection is essential for safe back country travel. Be alert for changing conditions at all elevations.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
The cold front passing through the South Coast Inland region should be out of the area by late this evening with a few scattered showers lingering tomorrow morning. A ridge of high pressure will move into the forecast area by Monday afternoon and is forecast to stay for the remainder of the week. MONDAY: Cloudy with scattered showers early in the day, freezing level at 1100m early in the day then climbing to 1800m by early afternoon. Winds will be from the north as the high pressure system moves in. TUESDAY: Freezing level early tuesday morning will be the low for the next few days at 1600 m. Temperatures will rise close to 2500 m. Winds will be from the north. No precipitation in the forecast. WEDNESDAY: Sunny skies with possibility of high overcast, freezing level forecast to climb to 2700 m., no precipitation, winds continue from the north.
Avalanche Summary
Reports from yesterday are of wind slab activity up to size 1.5 Loose-wet avalanches up to size 1.5. , and everyone is concerned with possible cornice failures
Snowpack Summary
5 to 10cm of recent storm snow overlies the last pulse of settled snow from yesterdays storm. All of the recent storm snow is sitting on a variety of crusts on all aspects except perhaps north above 2000m. Once again, it appears that slightly more snow fell in the south of the region where they received 10 to 15 cm of snow. The storm featured moderate south/southwest winds that have most likely formed wind slabs on lee slopes around treeline and above. Below the new snow, the snowpack is generally well-settled throughout with no notable persistent weaknesses, however, cornices are are reported to be huge and fragile. Be aware that as the high pressure comes into the region the winds will shift and be from the north. This could lead to reverse wind loading and build wind slabs on the south aspects below ridge tops.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.