Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Monday: A heavy snowfall beginning in the late afternoon. 10-15cm of new snow accumulating before sundown and 35cm by Tuesday morning. Winds increasing from light to strong from the southwest over the day. Freezing level rising to 600 metres with alpine temperatures to -1.Tuesday: Continuing flurries delivering up to 15cm of new snow. Winds moderate gusting to strong from the southwest. Freezing level at 800 metres with alpine temperatures remaining at -1.Wednesday: Lingering flurries with 5-10cm of new snow accumulating. Winds light gusting to moderate from the southwest. Freezing level to 700 metres with alpine temperatures to -3.

Ski cutting in the North Shore mountains has exposed a weakness about 5cm deep in the new snow. Watch for reactivity at this layer and our current surface as forecasted snowfall begins to pile up.

15 -20cm of dense new snow lies on the surface and is reported to be well bonded to an underlying rain crust formed on December 20. A radiation crust formed on December 19 can be found roughly 25cm deep on solar aspects. These upper layers cap 40cm of well settled storm snow from last week's series of storms. The storm snow seems to have a good bond to the layers below, despite the surface hoar and faceted snow that can still be found here. These weaker snow grains have begun to show signs of rounding. An old rain crust buried on December 3 is reported to be down 150-180cm in the North Shore mountains. This layer is well bonded to overlying snow and no stability concerns exist below this layer.