Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Feb 7 – 8, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

While danger ratings are coming down, the snowpack needs time to adjust to the weight of the warm wet snow and strong winds.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–6
    Storm slabs are likely trending towards wet slabs, or at least moist slabs at all elevations. New snow Saturday night should keep them touchy. Recent activity has had good propagation and I don't expect that to change Sunday.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Loose snow avalanches will likely remain a problem Sunday. While they may be slow moving, they can be quite powerful especially in confined spaces like creek beds and gulley features.

Weather Forecast

On Sunday the freezing level is expected to remain around 2000m. Only a few mm of precipitation are expected. Upper elevation winds should back off from Strong SW to moderate South Sunday afternoon. Looks like the freezing level will drop to 1500m Sunday night. Only very small amounts of precipitation are expected Monday and Tuesday.

Confidence

Fair

Avalanche Summary

On Friday we received reports of avalanches running to size 3 both naturally and with explosive control work on all aspects at and above treeline in the northern portion of the region. Loose wet avalanches were intentionally triggered to size 1.5 at and below treeline. In the south a natural cycle of loose wet avalanches to size 2 was observed on steep headwall features. Several glide avalanches to size 2 were also observed from steep rock features.

Snowpack Summary

The wet warm storm has produced 20 to as much as 80cm of snow above 2200m in the north. The snow is wet below 2000m and saturated below treeline. Moderate to strong winds out of the SW through SE have likely formed deep slabs at upper elevations. In the Southern portion of the region it sounds like a bit of cooling produced 15 cm of new snow Friday night, previously rain had fallen to ridgetop. All the new snow rests on the early February rain crust, and most of the avalanche activity has been on said crust. I have not heard of anything running below the crust at this point.

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