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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 7th, 2015–Feb 8th, 2015

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

While danger ratings are coming down, the snowpack needs time to adjust to the weight of the warm wet snow and strong winds.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

On Sunday the freezing level is expected to remain around 2000m. Only a few mm of precipitation are expected. Upper elevation winds should back off from Strong SW to moderate South Sunday afternoon. Looks like the freezing level will drop to 1500m Sunday night. Only very small amounts of precipitation are expected Monday and Tuesday.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday we received reports of avalanches running to size 3 both naturally and with explosive control work on all aspects at and above treeline in the northern portion of the region. Loose wet avalanches were intentionally triggered to size 1.5 at and below treeline. In the south a natural cycle of loose wet avalanches to size 2 was observed on steep headwall features. Several glide avalanches to size 2 were also observed from steep rock features.

Snowpack Summary

The wet warm storm has produced 20 to as much as 80cm of snow above 2200m in the north. The snow is wet below 2000m and saturated below treeline. Moderate to strong winds out of the SW through SE have likely formed deep slabs at upper elevations. In the Southern portion of the region it sounds like a bit of cooling produced 15 cm of new snow Friday night, previously rain had fallen to ridgetop. All the new snow rests on the early February rain crust, and most of the avalanche activity has been on said crust. I have not heard of anything running below the crust at this point.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.