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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2013–Feb 14th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Thursday: Mostly clear with cold temperatures overnight and nil precipitation. Moderate Westerly winds are expected to decrease to light Northwesterly by morning. Freezing levels down to the valley bottom overnight, and then rising up to about 1100 metres during the day. Some light precipitation may start by evening.Friday: Moderate West winds with Alpine temperatures around -6.0 and freezing levels rising to around 1200 metres. High overcast becoming cloudy with flurries starting in the evening. Saturday: Flurries becoming light snow overnight. Expect 5-10 cms during the day.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported from various aspects. Avalanches were reported to be dry slabs, and mostly from steep unskiable terrain.

Snowpack Summary

There is a new soft slab that is 20-40 cms thick that is sitting on a new layer of surface hoar that was buried on February 12th. This soft slab is expected to be reactive to light additional loads and may result in avalanches up to size 2.0. Before this new slab developed, there were various surfaces  that consisted of wind slab in exposed lee alpine terrain, sun crust on solar aspects, and surface hoar or facets on shady slopes. Below this up to 40 cm of settled storm snow sits on old wind slabs and recently buried weak layers. The late January surface hoar, sun crust, and/or facet layer is down around 80 cm deep and remains a concern for triggering. Use extra caution on large open slopes, cutblocks and convex rolls at and below treeline where the buried surface hoar may be preserved.Cornices are reported to be large throughout the region. The mid-pack is generally well settled and strong and the average snowpack depth at treeline elevations is near 200 cm.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.