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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 19th, 2014–Apr 20th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Unsettled conditions are expected for Sunday. Monday might see a weak ridge form resulting in dry conditions or the unsettled conditions may persist. The next organized system is expected to arrive on the south coast on Monday night and light precipitation is expected for Tuesday. Freezing levels are expected to be lower in the north of the region.Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, light scattered precipitation, freezing level am: 1300m pm: 1700m, ridgetop wind: light S-SWMonday: A mix of sun and cloud, light scattered precipitation, freezing level am: 1700m pm: 2300m, ridgetop wind: moderate S-SWMon. Night/Tuesday: Precipitation 3-5mm, freezing level am: 1700m pm: 1700m, ridgetop wind: light S-W

Avalanche Summary

We received 2 reports of avalanche activity in the Duffy Lake Road area on Friday. This includes a natural size 1.5 wind slab released from a steep north facing couloir, a skier triggered size 2.5 storm slab on a north aspect, and a skier triggered size 1 storm slab which released down 30cm. Public observations are really appreciated this time of year. If you are out in the mountains, please send your observations to [email protected].

Snowpack Summary

New snow is sitting on a melt-freeze crust which exists on all aspects up to 2000m, and to mountain-top on solar aspects. The recent warmer temperatures have helped to strengthen and settled the upper snowpack, especially on solar aspects. The upper snowpack is expected be moist at treeline and wet/isothermal below treeline. Where dry snow exists, recent SW winds have formed wind slab in leeward features. Large sagging cornices remain a concern, especially during periods of warming. The February crust/facet layer is now deeply buried 150-250 cm below the surface. This layer is mostly inactive at this time, but could re-awaken with extended warming, solar influence and large triggers like cornice fall.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.