Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Jan 21 – 22, 2016Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Some areas may not have seen enough precipitation to "clean out" buried persistent weaknesses. Proceed cautiously until we have a clearer picture of how conditions have changed.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–5
    Heavy loading on Thursday may have tipped off a widespread avalanche cycle on the mid-January persistent weak layer; however, I would take a very conservative approach until we know the extent of this cycle and the status of this persistent weakness.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–4
    Continued snowfall and strong winds at higher elevations will maintain high hazard in the alpine. Fresh storm slabs may fail naturally with additional loading or under the weight of a skier or snowmobile.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tonight and Friday: Rain or snow ending in the morning (10-15 mm), then cloudy with sunny breaks. The freezing level dips from 1800 m to 1400 m. Winds are moderate S easing to light from the SW. Saturday: Cloudy with sunny breaks. The freezing level is around 1000-1200 m and winds remain light from the W-SW. Sunday: Cloudy with sunny breaks. The freezing level is around 800-1000 m and winds are light from the SW.

Avalanche Summary

We will have to wait a day or two to determine how extensive the avalanche cycle on Thursday was. My guess is that we saw widespread activity at all elevations with slides up to at least size 3. Natural activity should taper off heading into the weekend. Hopefully the buried surface hoar problems were cleaned out, but I would treat any slope that did not release as being suspect, especially at treeline.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack may look quite different after Thursday's storm. Expect dense new wind and storm slabs, and fresh cornice growth at upper elevations. Heavy loading from snow (and potentially rain) may have flushed-out the mid- and early-January surface hoar/facet layers that were initially buried 30-40 cm deep. However, don't rule these layers out right away. It may still be possible to trigger shallow slopes that did not release naturally. Rain has probably saturated the upper snowpack on lower elevation slopes (below 1500-1800 m), especially in the south of the region. The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallower snowpack areas that may be more faceted.

Regions covered