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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 11th, 2012–Feb 12th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure is expected to rebuild on Sunday over the interior mountains. Moisture that is left over from the weak system on Saturday will continue to cause mid-level cloud and very isolated flurries on Sunday. Winds are expected to continue to be light in the Purcells and start to swing to the northwest in the afternoon. The freezing level is forecast to rise to about 1100 metres on Sunday and drop overnight to about 900 metres. Treeline maximum temperatures should be about -4.0 on Sunday and Monday. A weak Pacific system is expected to run into the ridge of high pressure on Monday that should cause some light flurries. The wind should change to north on Tuesday as more high pressure moves across the interior Clear skies and strong solar radiation is expected during the day on Tuesday, however northwest winds should help to keep alpine maximum temperatures close to -10.0 on shaded aspects. . Temperatures should drop down to about -17.0 in the alpine by Wednesday morning.

Avalanche Summary

One report of a natural cornice fall that triggered a deep slab size 3-3.5 down 150-200 cm on a steep northeast aspect in the high alpine. This was reported from Friday in the west of the region in a deep snowpack area. Some sloughing was reported from steep solar aspects at lower elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Widespread surface hoar continues to grow and has not been buried in most of the region. A melt-freeze crust has developed on southerly aspects at all elevations. North and east aspects continue to have dry snow and some surface hoar sloughing in steep terrain. The January 13th surface hoar layer is buried about 40 cm below the surface, and may still be reactive in thinner snowpack areas. Basal facets have not been reactive, but operators continue to monitor this layer in tests. Triggering this deep persistent weak layer is unlikely, but shallow snowpack areas or shallow weak areas adjacent to deeper wind loaded slopes are suspect locations.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.