Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
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Highlights

Icy conditions with remarkably little new snow exists in east facing terrain such as Tuckerman Ravine and Gulf of Slides following yesterday's storm. You may find wind and storm slabs in sheltered locations, primarily with a west-facing, lee component, such as Oakes Gulf, and in crossloaded areas that face north or south. Deeper accumulations of new snow or wind slabs may be triggered by a rider or skier so carefully assess these slopes before committing. Additionally, you’ll find that the old snow surface is very icy where the new snow has been blown off by the wind. Even small avalanches could be consequential considering the many obstacles in what may have been a clean run-out three weeks ago. Avalanche danger is MODERATE today due to the possibility of triggering an avalanche in isolated wind or storm slabs. 

The summer Lionhead Trail is open for travel. Crampons, not microspikes, and an ice axe will be needed for safe travel, especially across the steep and mostly wind scoured snowfield at treeline.

Regulations on Federal public lands supersede state mandates regarding protection from the coronavirus and it’s variants. These regulations require the use of a face mask when social distancing is not possible. Please plan to wear a mask in busy areas like the deck and courtyard at Hermit Lake and the floor of Tuckerman Ravine on a busy day.

Skiing below crossover 5 is likely to be just skiable, with rocks lurking beneath the surface and open areas where snow melted as it hit the warm and muddy ground. Skiing at a ski resort that allows skinning may be a safer option. Please move to the Tuckerman Ravine Trail and walk down when necessary to avoid damaging the ski trail.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    An early spring melt at upper elevations left our fetch bare prior to the new snow. Recent field observations confirmed that the alpine zone was bare rocks, alpine vegetation and krummholz. Wind was likely able to cross-load slopes and may have built wind slabs in isolated areas. These slabs are likely to be limited in size (D1, maybe D1.5) but a lack of field observations, particularly from the west side of the forecast area creates uncertainty in the size, distribution and sensitivity of new slabs.

    (4/16/2021) This photo of Tucks was taken at 2pm after 7" of new snow had fallen. The old gray snow surface shows the degree that the new snow was scoured off of east facing terrain.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    New snow may be sensitive to triggering by a skier or rider. Density changes in the snow or wind affected snow are likely to provide the cohesion needed for a slab to release, especially in steeper terrain. These slabs could carry and even bury a person in a terrain trap. Shooting cracks and small failures on test slopes should signal a change of plans for you. There are likely very few wind sheltered, steep and open terrain where this avalanche problem exists.

    (4/16/2021) Add about 4-5" of snow to the snow pictureed on the SAherburne ski trail and that's what todays conditions will look like.

Avalanche Discussion

Icy, wind exposed slopes received a skim coating yesterday with most of the new snow being blown into the nooks and crannies among the boulders and trees at treeline and in the alpine. Prior to this storm, we were well on our way to spring like conditions with skiing options rapidly shrinking down to areas with limited sun exposure or deep, wind accumulated snow and avalanche debris from the short winter. Yesterday’s storm packed almost an inch of water and delivered what would be a good base had the snow fallen in November. Unfortunately, the new snow was scoured and drifted into places of little use to skiers. More snow showers are possible Sunday and possibly Tuesday night but likely won’t change the snowpack much given the coarse fetch. Wind speeds for the next several days remain relatively light, even after the shift NW and relatively warm temperatures and sun will so it seems likely that the new snow will settle in place. 

Perhaps the best plan for skiers will be to wait for the new snow to pass through the sloppy stage before returning to a stable corn corn cycle next week. Cold nights and warm days this coming week may produce a good corn harvest, though skiing to the car may be short lived.  

The typical spring hazards emerged in recent weeks and should remain a player in your travel plans. New snow may bridge over some of the hazards which include: 

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Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here. 

The Harvard Cabin is now closed for the season. There is no access to the breezeway at HoJos.

Please Remember:

  • Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
  • Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

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