I've bumped up the hazard slightly in response to increased winds in the southern portion of the region. Be advised that wind slabs may have more "bite" on Tuesday than you've seen recently.
Confidence
Fair - Wind effect is extremely variable
Weather Forecast
Synopsis: A very strong ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern. The optimist sees a storm in the models next weekend. The realist says its still too early to count on.Tuesday: Sky: Overcast; Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precip: Nil Wind: Light, NEWednesday: Sky: Clearing; Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precip: Nil Wind: Light, NE, Mod NE at ridgetop.Thursday: Sky: Clear; Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precip: Nil Wind: Light, N
Avalanche Summary
Explosive control work on a steep north facing slope in the alpine produced a size 2.5 avalanche in the central portion of the region Saturday. On Sunday activity was limited to skier induced sluffing.
Snowpack Summary
The south of the region saw slightly more more precipitation in the last system. Near Kimberley up to 20cm of snow now sits on a variety of old surfaces, this amount is closer to 10cm further north in the Dogtooth range. The old surface can be found as large surface hoar (widespread in most sheltered and shaded areas and at all elevations), a sun crust (on open south facing slopes), facets (in colder areas or areas with a thinner snowpack), or a combination of any of the above. North winds are redistributing the new snow reverse loading lee features in the alpine and forming reactive pockets of windslab up to 40cm deep.The upper and mid-snowpack are generally supportive to a riders weight and well settled.In isolated areas where the snowpack is thinner or in steep rocky features a facet/crust weakness near the ground remains a concern. In most places the depth of this layer combined with the strength of the overlying slab makes triggering an avalanche unlikely. However, if you were unlucky enough to find a weak spot the consequence could be a large, destructive avalanche.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.