Abajos

Heavy snowfall over the past week and strong southerly winds have overloaded north-facing slopes and the avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes facing W-N-E at mid and upper elevations. Human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential. Elsewhere, the avalanche danger is MODERATE and human-triggered avalanches are possible. Stay off of and out from under steep, northerly-facing avalanche terrain.

With great sadness, the Utah Avalanche Center reports that a 57-year old skier, Kurt Damschroder of Park City, was killed in a backcountry avalanche off of Squaretop Peak, located on the Park City Ridgeline. The preliminary information can be found HERE. Our thoughts go out to those affected by this tragic accident, especially the family and friends of the victim.

On Friday (1/29/2021), several slab avalanches were observed that failed on weak, sugary snow near the ground on steep, NE aspects. One near North Creek Pass is reported to be snowmobile triggered. Recent avalanches are clear signs of instability.

Mathew Cozart reported observing several avalanches on Sunday (1/31/21). Read his report here.

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Wind S 10-15 Temp 30F

Yesterday, light southerly winds increased briefly in the afternoon with steady 20 mph winds and gusts into the 30 mph range before diminishing overnight. Overcast skies, southwest flow, and warm-air advection helped produce warm daytime temps reaching 39 F yesterday at 10,000'. Today, expect the overcast skies to dissipate breifly, followed by increasing clouds in the late afternoon/evening. High temperatures in the low 30s and southwesterly winds 10-20 mph. Models (including the groundhog!) are moving towards agreement and show that the base of the approaching trough will move over eastern Utah and western Colorado Wednesday evening. The good news is our area may receive a light burst of snow Wednesday night (2-4"). The bad news is a strong jet streak directly overhead will lead to strong winds tomorrow afternoon into Thursday.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')

Snowpack Discussion

It has been over 72 hours since our last loading event, which added much needed snow to our thin, weak, and meager snowpack. Warm temperatures and time have helped the snowpack adjust to the significant snow totals from last week. However, dangerous slabs 2'-3' deep are perched above the weak underlying snowpack, and conditions are primed for deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches. Yesterday, observations in the La Sal Pass area were a mixed bag. No recent avalanches were observed, nor did we observe cracking or collapsing. Southerly slopes were moist and a 2-3 cm melt freeze crust has formed at mid and low elevations. Snowpack results suggest that the most recent snow has bonded fairly-well to the old snow surface. Our primary layer of concern is deeper in the snowpack, where persistent weak layers formed in January and earlier in the season continue to be reactive in snowpack tests. This poor snowpack structure is widespread and still adjusting to the recent snow and wind. While reports of natural avalanches and cracking/collapsing may be becoming less frequent, it is still possible and even likely, to trigger a large and destructive avalanche with the additional weight of a skier or rider, especially in places where snow has been thickened by last week's wind.

Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.

New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.