Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

It's still possible to trigger an avalanche on North through East aspects near and above treeline. These avalanches would fail on deeper weak layers within the snowpack. Avoid slopes greater than 35 degrees and areas where the wind has transported snow and formed stiffer slabs that sit on top of old snow. Shooting cracks and whumpfs are great red flags that you are traveling in terrain that's capable of producing one of these avalanches. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    North through East aspects at and above treeline have developed a couple weak layers that we may find avalanches failing on. Areas where recent winds have formed stiffer more cohesive slabs on top of this structure are the areas where you will most likely trigger these avalanches.

    There is always a great amount of uncertainty when dealing with a Persistent Slab problem. These avalanches are known for failing long after a storm, propogating wide distances or even being remotely triggered from lower angled terrain. To mitigate this uncertainty give this avalanche problem and the terrain its found on a healthy margin of space. Avoid slopes greater than 35 degrees and look for shooting cracks and whumpfing as indicators of an unstable snowpack.  It is still early season out there and outside of the avalanche danger there is plenty of hazard buried just under the surface right now in the form of rocks and downed timber. 

     

     

     

     

    (11/24/2020) Weak faceted snow with a firm slab from previous strong wind event. New snow now rests on top of these weak layers,

Avalanche Discussion

We added an additional 2-3" of light density snow last night on top of settling storm snow from Nov 24. We havent been observing major signs of wind transported snow recently and last nights light Northerly winds weren't enough to increase the avalanche danger. Although, a couple inches of snow will make it harder to visually identify areas that were previously wind loaded. Be cautious entering the leeward sides of ridgelines and pay attention to what the snow feels like under your skis or with your poles. 

Recent natural and skier triggered avalanches from Nov 23-25 has been confined to North and East aspects above treeline and areas near treeline that act similarly to higher elevations. Several natural avalanches from Tuesday had the ability to propagate wide distances (200ft+) and started beneath cliffs and rock bands. In our travels over the last several days, we continue to get loud audible collapses and shooting cracks on these aspects that indicate we are still dealing with an unstable snowpack. 

Stability tests have produced a mixed bag of results near and above treeline on northerly aspects.  We are definitely finding that areas with a stiffer more cohesive slab are the same places where we are able to get propagation with easy to moderate force in long column tests. In other places, where we aren't finding these stiffer slabs, we have been unable to communicate propagation failure even though the snowpack is easily collapsed. 

To sum it all up, the snowpack is highly variable right now and can change rather quickly over minor changes in aspect and elevation. Before committing to a slope take the time to assess if a strong over weak structure exists and if there's signs of recent wind loading. Sheltered slopes less than 35 degrees without a strong over weak structure will provide the best skiing and riding today.

 

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