Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Even with generally safe avalanche conditions, you may still trigger small loose avalanches in very steep and rocky terrain. While these wet slides shouldn’t hurt you on their own, don’t let them push you over rocks or into a deep gully.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Any avalanche danger you encounter will likely stem from the impact of warm temperatures and sunshine on the snow surface. First thing in the morning, the snow should be very firm and maybe even icy. As temperatures warm and the sun has a chance to shine directly on some slopes, expect the surface to soften. This will occur first on SE-SW aspects, especially near-treeline where temperatures may be warmest. Step off your skis, board, or sled to see exactly how soft the surface is getting. If you sink in past your ankle or you find very wet and punchy snow, it’s time to head for lower angled or more frozen slopes. New rollerballs are also a great clue that the surface is becoming wet and possibly unstable. Crusts in the upper snowpack should help keep any potential loose wet avalanche small. However, don’t let them catch you by surprise and push you over rocks or into deep gullies.

    (1/15/2022)

    Plenty of small rollerballs on steep sunny slopes Saturday demonstrated the affect of warm temperatures and sunshine on the snow surface. 

    Photo: NPS Rangers

Avalanche Discussion

These long dark winter nights and mostly clear skies should allow the snow surface to freeze solid despite the warm temperatures by Sunday morning. This strong crust combined with two recent very widespread natural avalanche cycles gives (Jan 6-7 and 11-12) gives us the confidence that the snowpack has become generally stable. However, “low danger doesn’t mean no danger.” This is the first day we’ve forecasted Low avalanche hazard and we aren’t that far out from the last rain event. Additionally, most of our weather station sites haven’t dipped below freezing in 4 days. Take a moment to talk about these possible sources of uncertainty with your team before you commit to bigger and more consequential alpine objectives. 

Observations on Saturday from White Pass, Crystal Mt, and Mt Rainier all found a very solid snow surface in the morning. This crust softened in the sunshine and even produced rollerballs near Paradise (Mt Rainier), but did not fully break down. The upper snowpack contains alternating layers of firm crusts, weak wet snow, and strong rounded grains. Right now there aren’t any specific layers we’re tracking in the upper snowpack and any unstable snow should be limited to the surface. With the ongoing warm weather, it wouldn’t be a surprise to hear of a cornice failing naturally. Fortunately, these waves of snow are relatively small and are not very overhung compared to what we can see. That said, keep an eye out for cornices capping ridgelines above you, and find routes that minimize the amount of time you spend underneath these possible hazards.

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