Avalanche forecast

Salt Lake

Issued Jan 14, 2020valid to Jan 15, 2020Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A CONSIDERABLE danger exists at the mid and upper elevations on steep wind drifted slopes. Natural avalanches may be possible today, particularly with natural cornice release. Human triggered avalanches are expected. They'll be most prominent on north to east to south facing slopes but scattered across the compass.

Some avalanches may step down into older weaker layers that have been dormant for some time. Also note that areas of MODERATE for wind drifts exist even at the low elevations.

Sluffing and fresh wind drifts are expected with the midday storm.

Avalanche problems

Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Very Likely
Size
3
Wind slabs are scattered across the compass and can be triggered on steep terrain. Some may run naturally today.

NOTE that they will be found on nearly all aspects and even at the lowest elevations. I may have triggered my lowest elevation avalanche yesterday in Provo on a steep wind loaded south facing test slope at 6700'.

NOTE that these wind drifts may be sensitive and triggered from a distance...and/or they may be stubborn and resist failure until the 3rd skier or rider moves over them. They'll also be found well off the ridgelines and mid slope.

CRACKING AND COLLAPSING are key clues to instability.

CORNICES are becoming unruly and will break back farther than expected....and today are likely to trigger wind slabs on steep slopes below.
Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
Two Issues That Warrant Caution:

ONE: A poor facet/crust combination exists on steep southeast to southwest facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations. These have become increasingly dormant but cannot be written off, particularly with the recent wind and snow.

TWO: I am increasingly worried about the return of the repeater avalanches - the ones that broke down to the early season persistent weak layer of October/November facets. Alta ski area triggered one of these with explosives on Friday...and the recent avalanches along the Park City ridgeline and Reynolds Peak looks suspiciously like they stepped into the old snow layering. Nikki plans to investigate Sunday's Reynolds Peak avalanche today.

The upper reaches of the Cottonwoods have received nearly 100" of snow since the New Year. This - combined with the strong wind - is an excessive amount of stress on steep, northerly, thin and rocky snowpack areas. The Monitors, No Name, and others are particularly suspect on the south end of the PC ridgeline.

Bottom Line: there is some potential for persistent weak layers to reawaken today 1-3' deep on nearly all aspects of the mid and upper elevations.

UNCERTAINTY LEVEL: HIGH

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Recent Activity

"Tons of transport". Ski area control teams triggered numerous wind slabs yesterday where - as they said - crowns just kept filling back in.

Wind slabs were the name of the game in the backcountry yesterday as well. Some ran naturally (Flagstaff shoulder on south/southeast facing at 9400'), some were triggered from natural cornice fall (Dutch Draw/Conehead - east facing at 9900'), and some were even at lower elevations (Beartrap Gulley west facing at 8200'). One was triggered remotely along the PC ridgeline 8' deep at 70' wide. Most of these were 10-20" deep and roughly 100' wide and found on many aspects and elevations.

On Sunday, a skier unintentionally triggered a 2' deep and 50' wide pocket on east Reynolds Peak at 9200' east facing..and escaped off to the side before being caught.

I'd encourage you to look at all the details of the avalanches and observations, found in the Menu bar above.

Snow and Weather

Skies are partly cloudy with warm and windy conditions overnight. Most areas picked up a trace to an inch overnight on top of 4-8" yesterday.

Temps have steadily risen and are currently in the upper teens to low 20s. The west to southwest winds continue to be the punisher, averaging 30-35mph with gusts to 45. One gust at 11,000' hit 90mph overnight. It's also important to note that winds continue to be moderate to strong in the mid-elevations...and even gusty down low.

Today we'll see increasing clouds and snow filling in during the day with 4-8" possible. Winds will remain moderate to strong from the west.

Snow totals since New Year -

Solitude - 80”@4.12 SWE

Brighton - 93.5”@5.93 SWE

Alta - 94”@5.72 SWE

Canyons - roughly 50"@3.23 SWE

Trailbreaking is not for the faint of heart (pc:Mark White)

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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