Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It has been almost two weeks since we received measurable snowfall and the snowpack is generally stable.    Be alert for isolated exceptions.  These could be small, hard slabs of recently drifted snow easily spotted on the snow surface.   Or they could be larger slabs at high elevations in terrain where seasonal windloading has formed a thicker, denser snowpack over weak layers near the ground.   Hunt for soft snow to find the safest and highest quality riding today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    The odds of triggering a persistent slab continue to decrease under our current snow drought.  On steep terrain features near and above treeline with previous windloading, you may be able to trigger persistent slabs up to several feet thick that fail on weak snow near the ground. Below treeline, shallow pockets of hard slab exist in a few leeward terrain features.   Persistent slabs often surprise even the most experienced travelers because they give infrequent or irregular feedback.  To avoid this problem,  choose routes that stay off of steep terrain holding dense slabs over sugary weak layers.   You can read the snow texture and avoid terrain where the snowpack looks or feels deeper, denser, and more windloaded to help you avoid the problem.  The most concerning slopes are on northeast, east, and high southeast facing terrain.  You may be able to find isolated exceptions to the distribution rose on cross-loaded terrain features on other shady aspects.  Riding on steep terrain where the snowpack is softer and faceted throughout is the safest option.

    1/15: A triggered avalanche on a windloaded below treeline slope. While most of the terrain held soft, faceted snow, this feature held the right ingredients: a hard slab of wind drifted snow over weak facets.

Avalanche Discussion

Our forecasters in the field yesterday reported no signs of instability and increasing confidence in avalanche terrain - a trend that is consistent with a snowpack that has been gradually adjusting and faceting away during our two-week drought in both snowfall and persistent slab activity.  The travel advice for low danger is to "Watch for stable snow on isolated terrain features".  So what should you be watching for?

The most transparent hazards are the lobes of thin, hard slab leftover from last week's extreme wind event.  They are most common near valley bottoms, where the winds channeled and drifted snow down drainages.  You'll know that you've found one if you're riding through soft facets and suddenly face plant into a stiff, hard lobe of smooth looking snow.  These slabs are small and rather innocuous unless they take you for a ride into rocks or trees.   This observation from Snodgrass demonstrates the problem.  

At higher elevations, we have lingering concerns for a rare but much larger persistent slab avalanche that breaks near the ground two or three feet deep.  Poor structures still exist, although the threat of triggering one of these avalanches has become quite stubborn and isolated due to recent wind erosion, slab faceting, and the lapse in snowfall.  The isolated instabilities are harder to spot, but they are most likely to be found where the snowpack is deepest and most windloaded.  Analyzing seasonal drifting patterns and probing the snow can help you track where potential troublemakers might be lurking.   If you see large scalloped features caused by wind erosion, or if the snowpack feels weaker and softer throughout, the snowpack is safer.  This observation yesterday touches on travel management techniques in suspect terrain.  

Tomorrow's danger trend hinges on our weather forecast calling for only a few inches of snow and light winds.  If snow or wind exceed expectations, the danger will rise to MODERATE.   Check the forecast tomorrow for the most up-to-date storm monitoring and avalanche forecast.  

Regions covered