Conditions are dangerous above an elevation of 7,500 feet where the general avalanche hazard is considerble. Up there last nights strong winds are likely to have caused significantly more extensive slab development than was observed yesterday. Natural avalanche activity is possible and human triggered avalanches are likely on steep wind loaded avalanche prone slopes. Skiers and riders may get further out onto these slabs before they fail today. This may be the perfect recipe for an avalanche accident. Avalanches are unlikely below an elevation of 7,500 feet except on isolated terrain features. Excellent route-finding skills and conservative terrain choices are essential for safe travel in avalanche terrain.
Wind slab avalanches formed by west to northwest winds are likely to be triggered by skiers and riders today on steep avalanche prone slopes. At the higher elevations these slabs could be up to 2 feet deep.
At the higher elevations large to very large persistent slab avalanches with depths from 2 to 4 feet could release naturally, be human triggered or be triggered by a wind slab avalanche that steps down to buried weak layers of faceted snow. These dangerous slides could be triggered on a variety of aspects, could run full path and may be un-survivable.
( Discussion is generated from the previous day's afternoon forecast. )A lull is the snowfall is expected overnight. Lingering snow showers are likely. Another round of moderate to heavy snowfall is forecast to begin on Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday. This next system may bring 8 to 12 inches of new snow to a wide area of our forecast region. Summit winds are currently from the west at 25 to 35 miles per hour with gusts into the 50’s and are forecast to be 15 to 30 with gusts in the 40’s and increase tomorrow evening. Temperatures will be in the upper single digits and teens.Conditions will remain dangerous. Lots of new snow, buried persistent layers, strong ridge crest winds and the occurrence of large avalanche events tell us that. Currently the extend and size of today’s avalanche activity is not known. Large destructive avalanches that release naturally and run full path are a possibility tomorrow. Human triggered avalanches are likely and could be quite large. Avalanches that only involve the new snow could be several feet deep. Avalanches that dig down to deeper layers could be up to six feet deep. Excellent route-finding skills and conservative terrain choices will be essential for safe travel in avalanche terrain. The general avalanche hazard rating is expected to be at least considerable and could be higher.
