Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today and human triggered avalanches remain possible on steep, wind drifted slopes. Today's storm isn't likely to affect the danger much, but we may see some shallow, sensitive drifts developing later today on upper elevation slopes that have an easterly component to their aspect. Triggering an old wind slab is becoming increasingly less likely, but a triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. You are most likely to encounter a persistent weak layer on steep, shady, northerly facing slopes where the snowpack is shallow, and in areas of rocky, more radical terrain. Most low elevation and south-facing terrain have LOW danger.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    We may see some shallow, sensitive drifts developing along upper elevation ridge crests that have an easterly component to their aspect. These shouldn't pose too much of a threat today. Triggering an old wind slab is becoming increasingly less likely, but a triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Avoid steep slopes that look to be heavily wind-loaded, or that have a smooth, rounded appearance.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Weak layers have been observed within the most recent snow, and near the old snow interface. They have been displaying varying degrees of reactivity. Areas where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche on a buried weak layer are on steep, wind drifted slopes that face the north half of the compass. Shallow snowpack areas are also developing a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow near the ground. Avoid areas of steep, rocky, more radical terrain where you suspect the snowpack is shallow and weak.

Special Announcement

Road Conditions: Grand County widened the road and plowed the parking lot Monday. Expect a snow-packed surface with occasional ice. All-wheel drive with good tires recommended.

Grooming update: Tim was up grooming yesterday and I believe groomed into Gold Basin.

Recent Activity

I had a good look around on Sunday and observed that most of the avalanche activity of the past several days was confined to loose snow sluffs and point releases. One exception was a slide I observed in Tele Gold that appeared to have fractured beneath the cliffs and ran most of the length of the path. Nate Ament was up yesterday and detailed this avalanche further.

Nate Ament photo.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 24" Base Depth in Gold Basin 43" Wind W 10-20 mph Temp 25F

Clouds have begun streaming in ahead of a storm system that is dropping down from the NW. Unfortunately for us, this storm is a little too northerly and it will clip by us to the east as it makes its way southward. Today we'll see mostly cloudy skies, moderate NW winds, and a chance of snow with 2"-4" possible. Snow showers will continue tonight with another 1"-2" possible.

Powder conditions remain excellent and lots of people were out getting the goods yesterday. The sun was strong and temps were warmer so south faces may have a light crust today.

Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').

Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').

NWS weather forecast.

General Announcements

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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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