Thinner snowpack areas at alpine elevations are where larger avalanches are most likely. Recent avalanche activity in the Dogtooth Range suggests avalanche danger may be higher in northern parts of the region.
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with light snow possible. Accumulations around 5, maybe 10 cm. Strong southwesterly winds with temperatures below zero at all elevations.MONDAY: Mix of sun and clouds with isolated light flurries possible, temperatures remaining in the -5 to -10 C range with a light westerly wind.TUESDAY: Drier, colder, thin cloud, and a light northerly wind.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche reports from last week were most commonly located in alpine terrain around rocky or cross-loaded terrain with variable or thin snow cover. At least one ran all the way to valley bottom. Although smaller ones only involved the upper recent snow, the bigger ones were triggered in, or stepped down to, the mid-Dec facets. Moving forward, touchy fresh wind slabs are expected to form on northerly aspects anywhere it's windy and there's loose snow on the surface available for transport.
Snowpack Summary
Twenty to 50 cm of recent snow is settling over the previous mid-January snow surface which includes buried surface hoar in sheltered areas, and/or widespread facets. This slab is particularly touchy where where the buried surface hoar is preserved. Southwest winds have deposited wind slabs on the downwind side of ridge crests and similar terrain features. A deeper surface hoar/facet weakness from mid-December is down 50-100 cm and is generally considered dormant. However, a few storm slab and wind slab avalanches have recently stepped down to this layer in isolated areas. This layer remains an isolated concern for shallow snowpack areas where the weakness is closer to the snow surface. This weakness could potentially wake up again in the future although it doesn't appear Monday's will have enough punch for that to happen.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.