Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Snowfall over the last several days has built 2 to 3-foot soft storm slabs at all elevations.  Human-triggered storm slab avalanches are possible in this new snow. Pay attention to shooting cracks on the surface and deeper wind drifted slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain. Persistent slab avalanches failing on faceted weak layers near crusts higher up in the snowpack, as well as depth hoar near the ground in shallow snowpacks, may become more reactive as it adjusts to this latest load. Warming temperatures and strong sun this morning will make wet snow avalanches a concern near and below treeline.  Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, identifying features of concern.   

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and shifting winds over the last several days have built 2 to 4-foot storm slabs on many slopes.  Near and above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain these slabs may be stiffened by winds and appear smooth and round as wind drifted pillows.  Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks on the surface. New snow concerns also include loose snow sluffing on steeper slopes.  Avoid slopes over 35 degrees, where you find 12 inches or more of new snow.  A storm slab avalanche could be large enough to bury you or take you off your feet pushing you over a cliff or into a terrain trap. 

    We were getting shooting cracks on the surface on steep slopes near and above treeline yesterday in our travels

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Buried near-surface facets and faceted crusts in the upper portions of the snowpack that were reactive during the Daylight savings storm in the middle of March have mainly been quiet over the last 10 days.  Recent snow and over 2" of water may make these weak layers more reactive than what we've seen over the last week. In shallow snowpacks (less than 150 cm) that still exist on some slopes in our mountains, large grain facets and depth hoar near the ground continue to linger.  Before committing to a slope, take the time to dig a quick pit to assess if any of these persistent weak layers are reactive. A ski or probe pole is another useful tool to quickly measure snowpack depths. Avoid likely trigger points on steep slopes on the margins of the slab and near rock outcrops. Always think about the consequences if you were to trigger one of these larger persistent slab avalanches.   

    A shallow snowpack that has lingering depth hoar near the ground with the new snow resting on top of an obvious dust layer that formed prior to this latest round of snow.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    It's that time of year where the intense sun and warming temperatures will quickly make the new snow surface wet.  Increasing clouds this afternoon will help limit some of the warming today but below and near treeline the snow surface may become wet as loose wet snow avalanches will be possible.  Watch out for rollerballs and pinwheels as these are indications that the snow surface is becoming wet.  A small loose wet snow avalanche can take you off your feet and drag you down the slope making it hard to escape.  If you notice the snow surface becoming wet, head to a higher elevation or a shadier aspect. Today will be the precursor of things to come, with warm temperatures in the forecast for the coming days.  

Avalanche Discussion

It's been an impressive March, with this latest series of storms bringing 22 to 28 inches of snow and over 2" of snow water equivalent (SWE). Winds have quieted down in the last 24 hours, but over periods of these storms moderate to strong shifting winds have drifted snow into deeper pockets at higher elevations. Watch out for cornices that have been growing and may break back further than expected on ridgelines.    

With the return of the intense sun this time of year, the snow surface can quickly warmup changing avalanche conditions.  If you notice the snow surface getting wet and heavy think about heading to shadier aspects and avoiding steeper slopes.  This problem will become more of concern in the coming days with warmer temperatures.  It's never a bad idea to carry some glob stopper to help with the sticky snow as you transition from wet to dry snow surfaces. 

   

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