Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

Blowing snow on Sunday and a major wind event on Monday will create conditions for dangerous wind slab avalanches. Avoid wind loaded terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Loose wet avalanches are possible on sunny slopes in the afternoon.

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Gale westerly winds from Sunday afternoon are forecast to turn southwesterly on Monday evening. This will build wind slab on north, east and south aspects through Monday.

    Avoid areas with recent windloading. Be aware that this could happen mid-slope, as well as in the usual start zones near ridgeline.

Recent Avalanche Activity

2/8: Size 1 ski cut loose wet avalanche at the head of the Jollie on a solar aspect in the afternoon.

1/8: Two loose wet avalanches around size 1.5 were seen running in Pinnacle stream out of steep terrain on a rocky, sunny face at around 1pm.

31/7: Numerous size 2 and 3 naturally triggered avalanches running along the Divide. Most notable was a size 3 wind slab under Mt Cadogan that ran to valley bottom at 10:00 on Friday the 31st.

Other observations have been limited by bad weather.

Current Snowpack Conditions

An estimated 100cm of new snow has fallen about the Divide, tapering to 60cm in the Liebigs, and 20-40cm in the eastern part of the forecast area above around 1500m on the 30th and 31st. This is currently being redistributed by severe gale westerlies. Patches of rain crust are exposed below around 1700m. Suncrust is forming on solar aspects.

The lower pack is generally well settled, and includes a mix of slick crusts in areas exposed to west and northwesterly winds, windpressed snow in deposition zones on east and south facing terrain near ridgeline, and loose, faceted powder in sheltered areas.

Mountain Weather

Showers, with snow to 1200 metres, clearing in the evening.

Wind at 1000 metres: Westerly gale 70 km/h, easing to southwesterly 40 km/h in the evening.

Wind at 2000 metres: Westerly gale 85 km/h, easing to southwesterly gale 65 km/h in the evening.

Wind at 3000 metres: Severe gale westerlies 100 km/h, easing to southwesterly gale 85 km/h for a time in the afternoon.

Freezing level: 1500 metres, lowering to 900 metres in the evening.

Sliding Danger

Ridgelines and exposed areas will be been scoured back to slick crusts in places. Crampons and an ice axe are a good idea for ridge travel.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • The snowpack structure is well understood.
  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain due to the variability of wind effect on the snowpack.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered