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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2017–Feb 16th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Watch for conditions that change with elevation. Heavy rain at lower elevations means heavy snow up high.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: 5-15 mm of precipitation with strong southerly winds and freezing levels around 2000 m.FRIDAY: Unsettled conditions with isolated flurries, moderate southwesterly winds and freezing levels dropping to 1400 m.SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with flurries possible late in the day, light winds and freezing levels around 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Tuesday include continued natural loose wet avalanche activity up to Size 1 on steep sun exposed slopes, as well as a Size 2.5 natural cornice triggered persistent slab avalanche running on facets buried early February. Over the weekend, several rider triggered avalanches were reported on the MIN including a size 3 that resulted in a full burial. Click here more details (1). (2), and (3). Rain at lower elevations is expected to destabilize the upper snowpack resulting loose wet sluffing and potentially increasing the sensitivity of triggering persistent slab avalanches. In the alpine, touchy new wind slabs have the potential to step down and trigger persistent slab avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Flurries have resulted in light amounts of fresh snow at higher elevations, while elsewhere the snow surface has become wet, loose and cohesionless on sun-exposed slopes and at lower elevations. Rapidly settling storm snow from last week is still bonding poorly to the previous snow surface from early February, which is now down 40-70 cm and includes a sun crust on steep sun-exposed slopes, faceted snow, as well as surface hoar on sheltered open slopes. Recent strong winds from the south and west had redistributed the recent storm snow in exposed terrain forming wind slabs. The persistent weakness buried mid-January is now down around 80-100 cm and the surface hoar/facet weakness buried mid-December is down 100-150 cm. These deep persistent weaknesses have the potential to wake up and become reactive with the current warm temperatures.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.