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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 22nd, 2017–Feb 23rd, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

The best riding right now is probably on high north aspects, which is also where the hazard is the highest. Don't let your guard down when searching for fresh powder. If the sun comes out in full force, use extra caution on south slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

We're into a stable and benign weather pattern with cooling temperatures and isolated flurries.THURSDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks and isolated flurries / Light southerly winds / Freezing levels at valley bottom / Alpine high temperatures near -8 Celsius.FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud and isolated flurries / Light variable winds / Freezing levels at valley bottom / Alpine high temperatures near -8 Celsius.SATURDAY: Cloudy with light flurries in the afternoon (local accumulations 5-10cm possible) / Light southwest winds / Freezing levels at valley bottom / Alpine high temperatures near -9 Celsius.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday there was a machine-triggered Size 2 near Wells that resulted in a burial. See here for the Facebook post.On Friday there was a spooky remote-triggered Size 3 near Valemount. It was at ridge crest, upper treeline elevation on a southwest aspect. See here for this great MIN post.Since temperatures cooled down over the weekend, we've had limited reports of slab avalanches, even with cornice fall as a trigger.

Snowpack Summary

We've had little change over past several days with 1-5cm new snow each day in most areas (and some spots receiving 15cm low density snow). Expect to find 15-35 cm of newer snow blown into wind slabs at higher elevations, most recently by some moderate southeast winds.The sun is starting to pack a punch and can trigger loose snow avalanches mid-day. The sun is also creating a thin crust on steep southerly aspects.At lower elevations there's moist snow or supportive crust below 1700m. Settling snow (40-60cm) from last week is still bonding slowly to the previous snow surface from early February, which is now down 50-80 cm.The persistent weakness buried mid-January is now down around 80-100 cm and the surface hoar/facet weakness buried mid-December is down 100-150 cm. These deep persistent weaknesses still have the potential to wake up and become reactive with human triggers. (See MIN post above).

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.