Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Apr 3 – 4, 2017Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 9 years ago

Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Daytime and solar heating will weaken cornices, avoid traveling in avalanche terrain during periods of intense solar input.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3
    Cornice failure is hard to predict but is more likely with inputs like solar radiation and wind-loading.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Prolonged solar radiation and rising freezing levels with weaken the snowpack on South and West aspects, especially around steep and rocky areas.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–4
    This problem is unlikely to disappear. It can be triggered by large loads like cornice fall or windslab failure. Human triggering is most likely from shallow spots or on steep unsupported slopes.

Weather Forecast

Clear skies with no forecasted snow as a shallow ridge of high pressure moves into our area on Tuesday. Winds will be light from the West with an alpine high of -6 with freezing levels rising to 1500m. Light flurries on Wednesday into Thursday with freezing levels to 2000m.

Snowpack Summary

10cm of new snow in past 2 days has formed windslab along lee ridge-lines and cross-loaded gully features from SW winds. Mid-pack bridging basal weakness. Entire lower snowpack is weak with a combination of facets, Nov rain crust and depth hoar. Below tree line a 5-10cm melt freeze crust sits above a moist facet layer to ground.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations on Monday, but previous cornice and windslab failures have triggered the deep persistent slab resulting large full path avalanches. Loose wet avalanches have previously occurred on steep south and west aspect below tree-line.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Tuesday

Regions covered