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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 14th, 2019–Apr 15th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Winter is coming... back and new snow has likely improved riding quality, especially in the alpine. But new snow and wind are likely forming fresh slabs, so you need to carefully check out the bond of the new snow before committing to your line.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

A fairly juicy pattern is setting up that should deliver significant snow and wind to the Coast beginning Monday night carrying on through at least Friday. These systems are pretty convective which makes it difficult to pin down accurate snowfall amounts, but it looks like winter is coming, back, at least to the alpine over the next few days.SUNDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 500 m, light to moderate southwest wind, trace to 3 cm of snow possible. MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level rising to around 1000 m, light to moderate southwest wind, trace to 3 cm of snow possible. TUESDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 1000 m, moderate to strong southwest wind, 5 to 15 cm of snow possible, with another 5 to 10 cm possible Tuesday evening.WEDNESDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 1200 m, moderate to strong southwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible during the day with 5 to 15 cm possible Wednesday night.

Avalanche Summary

Ne new avalanche activity to report from yesterday, but most of the snow fell late in the day.We received a great MIN report on Friday. It details a few avalanche occurrences including a size 3 on an east facing slope and lots of loose wet activity from steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

The region received 5 to 20 cm of snow Saturday into Saturday night. There is now about 20 cm of dry snow on high elevation north facing slopes and a 5 to 10 cm melt freeze crust on all other aspects. As we enter into mid-April we're dealing with a classic warm snowpack. At and below treeline the snowpack is becoming isothermal. We're tracking the April 4th crust which is down 20 to 80 cm below the surface on high elevation north facing slopes. Surface hoar and facets have been observed on this crust and it continues to produce sudden planar results in snowpack tests. We have not heard of any activity on this interface recently, but this week's cycle of storms have potential to activate it. Digging deeper, north facing alpine terrain also has a layer of facets down approximately 100 cm below the surface which are thought to be dormant at this time.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.