Avalanche Forecast

A weakening upper low from the Gulf of Alaska will move to the Northwest on Wednesday. The main rain or snow should be over Oregon. In the Olympics and Washington Cascades this should cause mostly light showers and cool temperatures. Some consolidation and cooler temperatures should slightly lower the avalanche danger from Tuesday to Wednesday. But new snow at higher elevations or rain amounts and solar effects are hard to predict on Wednesday. Remember to evaluate snow and terrain carefully on Wednesday.

Any additional rain or snow and late March solar effects should make wet snow conditions and wet loose avalanches possible mainly near and below treeline on Wednesday. Watch for wet surface snow deeper than a few inches, roller balls in surface snow and small natural wet loose releases that usually precede more major wet loose snow avalanches.

New or recent small areas of wind slab should also be possible Wednesday mainly above treeline on lee slopes. Watch for signs of cracking or firmer wind transported snow.

We have shifted avalanche concerns to more recent layers and moved away from deeper snowpack concerns from earlier this winter.

A cold front crossed the Northwest Wednesday last week. Snowfall at NWAC sites near and west of the crest ranged from 3 to 19 inches with a cooling trend. On Thursday a skier at Stevens Pass in a NNW facing chute at 5400 feet called Fleur de Lis triggered a 6-8" storm slab and lost gear but fortunately was uninjured. Several other natural and triggered storm slab avalanches were reported. NWAC observer Jeff Ward was at Jim Hill near Stevens Pass on Friday - here is a video.

Warmer weather with increasing sun was seen Saturday to Monday. Reports indicated some powder surviving on north slopes and wet loose avalanches on solar slopes. NWAC observer Dallas Glass at Paradise Saturday and a report on Turns All Year from Crystal Saturday indicated small to large triggered wet loose snow avalanches. This also weather also formed surface crusts on many solar aspects. And there was a fatal avalanche accident at Granite Mountain near Snoqualmie Pass - see below.

A front is crossing the Northwest on Tuesday causing mostly light to locally moderate rain and snow. NWAC observer Dallas Glass at Snoqualmie reports wet snow conditions, roller balls and a small triggered wet loose avalanche. The Mt Baker and Alpental patrols report softening surface crusts over wet snow.

Granite Mountain Accident: Around 4:45 PM on Saturday afternoon 2 skiers and a dog began descending the skier's right avalanche path on the south side of Granite Mountain. They triggered a slab avalanche that stepped down to a deeper slab. Upon review of crown photos and conversations with avalanche professionals from Snoqualmie Pass it seems that the initial slab failure on this cross loaded path included the Wednesday storm snow. The deeper second slab of similar depth included 16-17 March storm snow with the bonds between these layers weakened by strong solar input and potential melt water in the upper snowpack during the afternoon. The best estimate right now is that both slabs were at least 1 foot in depth.

The skier caught and killed in the avalanche skied off the ridge at about 5200 feet and onto a steep (40+ degrees) slope. The avalanche became a large and destructive funneling down to around 2300', entraining wet snow lower in the avalanche path and at times gouging to the ground. Size estimates are at least D3/R3. The other skier was in a safe zone and not affected. The skier that was caught was buried under 20 feet of debris but was recovered Sunday morning by local search and rescue personnel.

Photo of Granite Mountain avalanche taken 23 March 2014 by Jason Skipper.