Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A weak frontal system will move through the South Coast on Friday bringing light to moderate snowfall and rising freezing levels. Expect 5-10cm of snow, moderate SW winds, and a freezing level jumping to around 1500m. Saturday should be mainly dry during the day. The freezing level could rise as high as 2400m. Another system should move through overnight on Saturday bringing light to moderate precipitation through Sunday morning. The freezing level should drop to around 1200m on Sunday.
Avalanche Summary
There have been no new reports of avalanches. Fresh soft wind slabs are expected to form and become an avalanche problem.
Snowpack Summary
Large surface hoar and faceted powder on sheltered shady slopes, and a surface crust on sun-exposed slopes, is now lightly buried in some locations and should continue to get incrementally buried over the forecast period. Assuming the structure of this current snow surface is preserved long enough for a sufficiently thick and cohesive slab to bury it, then a highly unstable situation should develop. Particularly where surface hoar and/or faceted crystals are associated with a weak crust. Generally speaking the longer surface snow is exposed to the elements before it gets burred, the more likely it is to become a serious problem given favorable conditions for slab development. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong, but faceted. Check out the Forecaster's Blog link below for more general snowpack discussion and good advice.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.