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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 26th, 2016–Mar 27th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Solar radiation will rapidly cause a decrease in snowpack stability and cause the danger to trend towards HIGH.  Keep a close eye on temperatures and aspects you are travelling on.  Early starts and finishes are key.  Avoid being under cornices.

Confidence

High - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Sunday will likely be a carbon copy of Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds, warm temperatures and light SW winds.  The key thing to make note of will be the influence of the solar radiation on stability throughout the day.  Timing is everything... start early and be done early to avoid the periods when stability will be at its worst.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose wet slides out of steep solar aspects up to sz 1.5.  There were also 2 large sz 3's off of Mt indefatigable at occurred on an east aspect at 2700m.  Solar affect was likely the trigger. 

Snowpack Summary

Snow was becoming moist on solar aspects early in the day right up to the peaks.  Light winds out of the SW were helping to keep the snowpack on the other aspects cool but as soon as you hit 2000m moist surface snow was being encountered.  Solar aspects have a series of crusts in the upper snowpack that are producing avalanches on these interfaces as temperatures warm up.  Northern aspects still have a full on winter snowpack above 2000m which includes the dribs of snow over the past week, a thick mid-pack layer and then a weak facetted base.  Thin areas where you can trigger the thin weak base will be places to avoid....

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.