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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 20th, 2016–Mar 21st, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Solar aspects have a mixture of crusts and northern aspects are still full on winter with a weak facetted snowpack.  Solar radiation is strong at this time of year so pay close attention to the sun!

Confidence

High - Due to the number and quality of field observations on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels are forecast to drop to near 1600m over the next few days with conditions being a bit more cloudy.  Temperatures in the Alpine tomorrow will be around -2C with a  few small cm's of snow expected overnight. 

Avalanche Summary

A few loose wet avalanches up to sz 1 were being observed on solar aspects out of steep unskiable terrain.  More avalanches may have occurred but forecasters were out of the field by 1pm.

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow was being encountered on solar aspects up to 2700m.  North aspects still had dry snow but the snowpack on these areas is far from a stable spring snowpack.  Many areas had a weak facetted base that would be prone to triggering by a skier from a thinner snowpack area.  Cornices are still large and looming over many alpine features.  As temperatures cool moving into the week, solar aspects will have a rugged temperature crust that will make skiing challenging. 

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.