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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 9th, 2017–Feb 10th, 2017

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Strong winds, new snow and warming temps are creating new storm slabs that are sitting on top of an already weak snowpack.  Good time to ski at a hill!

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

An additional 10-20cm of snow is forecast to fall over the next 24hrs with strong SW winds and seasonal temperatures.  Freezing levels are forecast to remain around 1600m.  We are seeing a warming trend moving into next week.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanche activity was observed on Thursday but visibility was obscured all day.

Snowpack Summary

Snow began falling later in the afternoon on Thursday as well as westerly winds and temperatures began to increase.  Forecasters were running into storm slabs up to 30cm thick in most open areas at all elevation bands.  The more deeply buried weak facetted base is also widespread in the region and any avalanche that initiates in the upper snowpack is likely to step down to this weak base and involve the entire winters snowpack.  Winds winds and snow expected to continue over the next 24hrs, we only expect these storm slabs to become thicker and more reactive.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.